The Dwindling Beauty of Our Weapons
Life During Trumptime 7/27/26 - 8/2/26
Is America running out of munitions?
For months experts and analysts have watched as the United States hit Iran with thousands of missiles. The US is well armed but there are limits to its stores and limitations on manufacturing more. The almost daily ranged strikes on Iran has me wondering if we’re nearing those limits.
In April, the Center for International and Strategic Studies ran the numbers and concluded that America would be in trouble if it had to fight another war. “The diminished munitions stockpiles have created a near-term risk. A war against a capable peer competitor like China will consume munitions at greater rates than in this war. Prewar inventories were already insufficient; the levels today will constrain U.S. operations should a future conflict arise,” the study said.
US weapons systems are expensive and take months, and sometimes years, to replace. A month later, US Forces in Korea shipped THAAD missiles to the Middle East to resupply its dwindling stock. At the time, the Pentagon had fired more than 1,200 Patriot missiles at Iran. Concern grew as summer passed, the war continued, and the Pentagon fired more missiles. Over the past few weeks munitions anxiety has become a key feature of the war. On July 26 Trump paused the conflict after nearly two weeks of attacks on Iran and journalists asked if the break might have something to do with this lack of ammunition.
It’s possible that the American military is at an inflection point. The Pentagon is a lumbering bureaucracy that does not change quickly and it’s spent decades and millions of dollars buying complicated munitions supported by a labyrinthine supply chain to fight a near-peer enemy. Now it’s blowing through those munitions fast in a fight against a much smaller country that’s striking targets with cheap drones.
The Pentagon has been promising it would pursue cheap domestically manufactured drones for a few years now, but you go to war with the army you have. Change doesn’t come save in reaction to material stresses. Running out of million dollar Patriot missiles might just be the kind of material stress the Pentagon needs to pivot to the modern way of war.
But only if America’s leaders can internalize the lessons of the war and make changes.
7/27/26
On Monday, Trump attempted to head off concerns about flagging stockpiles of American munitions during a press gaggle on Air Force One. “We have a lot of ammunition, different types, you know Biden gave a lot to Ukraine. So we’re building that up. But we have a lot. We have a lot of the middle level stuff too. I mean, more than we could ever use no matter what. I’d like to have more, to be honest. But so much was given to Ukraine by Biden. When I left, the cupboards were full,” Trump said.
He also said that the US was having “good talks” with Iran about peace. Later that day, Tehran hit targets in Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Iraq. The Wall Street Journal reported that Oman and Iran were attempting to hash out a deal about the Strait of Hormuz as a way to jumpstart peace talks. America was not directly involved in the negotiations.
7/28/26
In a post on X, CENTCOM said that the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps had struck targets across the Middle East as part of a “surprise attack.”
The US Senate voted to confirm Jay Clayton as the Director of National Intelligence 51 to 47. No Democrats crossed the aisle to vote for Clayton, who will replace interim Director and construction scion Bill Pulte. The mood among Congressional Democrats is that Clayton is bad but Pulte is worse.
Pulte took over the position after Tulsi Gabbard at the end of June. He has no intelligence experience and spent most of his time firing people. Trump has, at times, supported both Pulte and Clayton for the position. He’s used the confirmation hearings to lobby Congress to renew FISA laws and pass the SAVE Act, even telling Clayton not to attend his own confirmation hearing until Trump got what he wanted out of Congress.
7/29/26
Anthony Fauci, former Chief Medical Advisor to the President and longtime face of America’s Covid pandemic response, pleaded the Fifth multiple times during an hours-long Senate hearing on Wednesday. The Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee had called Fauci to testify about his involvement in the pandemic response and he declined to answer by invoking his constitutional rights.
Fauci accused Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky, specifically, of being obsessed with him. Paul had released Fauci’s personal journal to the public the day before the hearing. “The only conclusion I can reach is that the sole reason he is calling me before this committee is to get me to say something — anything — that could vindicate his repeated public pledges that I end up, in his words — quote — ‘behind bars,’” Fauci said of Paul during his opening remarks.
7/30/26
The war expanded on Thursday.
Jordan said it intercepted Iranian missiles for the second day in a row. Kuwait’s Ministry of Defense said that an Iranian attack struck a building belonging to a Chinese company, killing at least one person. Egypt said a drone attack on its port in Damietta caused a fire that engulfed two ships. If Iran is responsible for that attack then this would be the first time the IRGC had struck Egypt. But Tehran has not said it struck the port.
Writing in the Nation, political anthropologist David Vine argued that America may be facing a future where it has far fewer military bases in the Middle East.
Many, including former military leaders, are urging change. Current infrastructure “has become an anachronism that endangers US troops,” writes one of the architects of US Middle East basing, former high-ranking George W. Bush and Trump 1.0 administration official Elliott Abrams.
Some want to “harden” installations by improving their ability to survive attacks. Others want to “disperse” troops to more locations, especially those farther from Iran, including Israel.
Both supposed solutions would cost taxpayers tens, if not hundreds, of billions of dollars in construction and operational costs. No amount of hardening and dispersing can fully protect US troops, let alone host nations. Iran could still hit US bases farther away, Abrams acknowledges, as recent deaths and injuries in Jordan show
Governments may refuse to host as they increasingly question allowing US bases to occupy their territory. The US military turned hosts into targets for Iran rather than offering protection, as US leaders promised.
7/31/26
The Justice Department dropped its charges against David Hearn, the Olympian it had accused of sabotaging the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool. The 20 page dismissal tells the surreal story of how Hearn came to face federal charges over the shoddy work done by a contractor on the pool.
Lieutenant Stone asked if he was pulling off pieces of the Reflecting Pool. HEARN denied and stated “No, I didn’t pull any thing off.” During the investigation, HEARN told Officer Hyman that he reached down into the Reflecting Pool to feel the temperature of the water. He noticed a big piece of material flapping in the water and began to grab at it. He was advised by a National Park Service employee that he could not touch it. HEARN stated that he stopped and walked over to his bike, He was then stopped and detained by the National Guard who brought him over to the Officers.
It was determined during the investigation that a witness observed HEARN record himself with his phone to reach into the Reflecting Pool water. HEARN then began to rip and pull at a chunk of liner material attached to the Reflecting Pool. A National Park Service employee told HEARN not to touch and rip the liner out. HEARN told the employee they were “awfully sensitive about the pool” and continued tugging at the liner until the National Guard stopped him.
What follows that is a painful blow by blow of the federal government investigating work by the contractor and discovering how bad it was. “A recent visual inspection showed damage throughout the Reflecting Pool, even in the middle of the pool, where a vandal would not likely attempt to peel the lining. Given all of this newly discovered information, it is difficult to attribute the widespread damage to the Reflecting Pool to vandalism, let alone to establish that fact beyond a reasonable doubt,” the dismissal said.
8/1/26
Trump weighed in on Pirro’s dismissal of the Reflecting Pool charges in a post on Truth Social.
In other Truth Social news, Trump Media and Technology Group (TMTG) launched “Truth API” a licensed data service that would give people who pay $100,000 a month early access to Trump’s posts on the platform.
“Markets already move on Truth Social posts. Truth API delivers a direct, licensed, real-time feed of the platform’s most market-moving Truths while advancing our strategy to monetize proprietary assets through a high-margin, recurring revenue stream. As adoption grows, we expect Truth API to become a meaningful, ongoing source of revenue for the company, creating lasting value for shareholders,” Kevin McGurn, Interim CEO of TMTG, said in a press release about the venture.
Renée Jones, a former Securities and Exchange Commission official, told NPR that the offering was probably illegal.
US European Command head Gen. Alexus Grynkewich sent a written notice to Pentagon officials explaining that he didn’t have the forces necessary to protect Israel. The Washington Post had the write-up.
The general’s warning comes at a tenuous moment in the five-month conflict, as near-daily attacks have resumed following the collapse of peace talks between Washington and Tehran and the operation’s intensity has drained U.S. supplies of key defensive weapons.
The Navy has been particularly taxed, as the Trump administration has directed a blockade of Iranian ports in response to Tehran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The standoff has stymied the movement of Middle Eastern oil and other commodities through the narrow waterway, upending the global economy.
U.S. naval destroyers in the eastern Mediterranean Sea have been employed as a part of Israel’s defense for many years. The vessels, equipped with powerful radar and armed with an array of missiles, have downed missiles aimed at Israel not only by Iran, but by Houthi militants in Yemen that are equipped by Tehran.
In a post on Truth Social, Trump announced that Iran “and other Middle Eastern Countries” had asked him to hold off on attacking Iran. He said yes.
8/2/6
The Wall Street Journal reported the background on Trump backing down.
Iranian diplomats also presented new ideas Friday to open the strategic waterway and lift sanctions on their country’s oil, regional officials said.
Just a few hours before Trump’s announcement, Saudi Arabian Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman held a call with the U.S. president urging dialogue to reduce escalation in the region, according to Saudi state media and Saudi officials familiar with the matter.
“Such efforts pave the way for diplomatic solutions that yield positive results, preserving the region’s security and stability while preventing a slide into a broader conflict with repercussions for regional and international security and stability,” the Saudi government said Sunday.