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Nuclear Warning Signs in Russia’s War on Ukraine
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Nuclear Warning Signs in Russia’s War on Ukraine

A missile exercise and a supposed strike on an early warning system rise above the level of ‘saber-rattling.’

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Matthew Gault
May 24, 2024
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Nuclear Warning Signs in Russia’s War on Ukraine
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A photo from Russia’s tactical nuclear drill. MOD photo via TASS.

Russian and Ukrainian news sources have published photos of what appears to be the aftermath of a strike on a Russian radar system near Armavir. The radar station is part of the network of stations that make up the system that Russia uses to warn of incoming nuclear attacks. Satellite imagery obtained by The War Zone showed mounds of debris near two Voronezh-DM radar buildings that appears to confirm the stations were struck.

Damage to the radar stations near Armavir. Images via Telegram.

The damage probably occurred earlier in the week as part of a Ukrainian drone strike against targets in the southwestern portion of Russia. Kyiv has not publicly claimed responsibility for the attack and Moscow has not officially commented on it. The blow to Russia’s nuclear early warning system comes amid raised nuclear tensions in the region. Also earlier this week, Russian media posted images and videos of a recent tactical nuclear drill.

“This strike was a bad idea,” James Acton, co-director of Carnegie’s nuclear policy program, said on X. “It provided only limited military benefit to Ukraine and exacerbates nuclear risks.”

“The attack on Armavir probably won't induce a nuclear war, probably won't induce further escalation,” Acton told me on the phone. “But what I would say is that when we're dealing with nuclear war…the product probability and consequence is really what matters.”

“And because the consequences are potentially so enormous, we should take even a relatively modest increase in the probability very seriously,” he said. “This is an immensely sensitive asset that got blown up. The U.S. has previously threatened to use nuclear weapons or or held open the possibility it might use nuclear weapons in the event of attacks on the U.S. nuclear command and control system. The Russians have made it a very similar threat as well. So you know, I don't think we can just dismiss the danger that this kind of strike creates.”

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