Losing the War and Losing the Reflecting Pool
Life During Trumptime 6/15/26 - 6/21/26
Last week a war ended and a pool opened. Though I follow conflict and my algorithms are tuned so that I’m fed updates on Iran and Ukraine it felt as if I saw more about the reflecting pool than peace negotiations with Iran or Ukraine hitting targets within Russia. The internet, it seemed, was eager to tell me about the pool. This is, to be clear, not a criticism of the modern media environment. The story of Trump and the Reflecting Pool is enchanting. The stakes are low and the comedy high.
The Iran War and the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU), by contrast, is confusing. The lies and leaks contradict each other. Western reporters are not on the ground in the conflict zone and the word of the administration can’t be believed. Writing up this week I was struck by how hard it was to keep track of the minutia of the peace negotiations. The exact wording of the MoU itself was published, refuted, and published again before congealing late in the week.
But everyone can see what’s happening with the Reflecting Pool. Until recently anyone could walk by it, see the shoddy construction job that is a hallmark of Trump, and run their hands through the algae filled water.
Michelle Cottle nailed it in the Times. “These are not the most outrageous things the president has done since his return to office. But that is part of what makes this saga so irresistible and resonant. It is Trumpism made laughable — farce rather than horror or tragedy.
The Iran War is a farce too, but the stakes are high. Thousands are dead and America suffered a humiliating defeat. All while our president raged at a Reflecting Pool. Trump’s watery obsession recalls Narcissus or Al Capone, brain ravaged by syphilis, fishing in his own swimming pool.
6/15/26
An Air Force B-52 Stratofortress bomber crashed during a test mission near Edwards Air Force Base in California. The crash killed eight people, a mix of military and civilians. The B-52s were mostly manufactured in the 1950s and have been flying missions ever since. America can’t seem to quit them and the Pentagon has routinely gone to the Boneyard — the aircraft graveyard at Davis-Monthan Air Force Base in Arizona — to put old ones back together.
The Iran War continued to be over on Monday and Trump and Vance claimed that they had signed digital versions of the peace deal. At this point, the public did not know the details of the peace yet oil prices tumbled.
The New Yorker published a great longread on the people who attempted to help Trump take over Greenland. A highlight was a scene where Louisiana governor Jeff Landry wandered the city of Nuuk attempting to hand out MAGA hats and talking about chocolate chip cookies.
“If you come to Louisiana and you come to the governor’s mansion? All the chocolate-chip cookies you could eat,” he told a group of boys. Another boy apparently asked if Landry was famous.
“I don’t know if he’s famous, but he’s the governor of Louisiana,” Landry’s wife, Sharon, said.
“Do you want to take a picture?” Landry asked.
“No,” the boy replied.
Landry abandoned the business conference within half an hour of its start. “We have our red lines,” Nielsen, who looked exhausted, told the Danish national broadcaster. “No matter how many chocolate cookies we get, we are not going to change them.”
6/16/26
Tuesday would, eventually, be the day that the world learned the details of the Iran deal. By the middle of the week the deal was officially known as the Memorandum of Understanding and there were days of leaks and reports about its contents. The first came from Bloomberg but an Iranian backed news agency denounced that version as inaccurate the following day. Things would get weirder and more complicated as the week went on.
FBI Director Kash Patel announced that the feds had arrested five people connected to an alleged terror plot to attack the White House UFC event.
A team of workers poured hydrogen peroxide — an ingredient in many common paint thinners — into the reflecting pool in an effort to kill off algae blooms. It didn’t work.
6/17/26
The Justice Department released charging documents related to the alleged UFC terror attack on Wednesday. “The conspirators allegedly planned to deploy drones armed with explosives in and around the UFC Freedom 250 event in order to force an evacuation of the event and then planned to deploy snipers to fire upon ‘high value targets’ within the fleeing crowd,” said a DOJ press release.
The feds shared screenshots of the group chats where the men allegedly planned the attack as well as circumstantial social media posts. “A search of Roa’s phone allegedly found messages in a group with Thomas, Proper, and others discussing an attack at the UFC event at the White House, with some users discussing using drones rigged with explosives to initiate the attack, with rooftop snipers killing individuals. Law enforcement also allegedly found Instagram videos Roa had posted of himself shooting guns,” the press release said.
We learned what was in the MoU on Wednesday. Axios reported that Trump and Iranian officials didn’t actually sign a digital version of the agreement. Trump attended a signing ceremony in Versailles and signed the MoU. CNN published a version of the MoU that was different from what Bloomberg shared and White House comms director Steven Cheung said CNN’s version was bullshit.
By the end of the day several news outlets published the MoU and a consensus reality around its contents formed. They can’t be read as anything but a catastrophic loss of the war for the United States. Iran promised not to pursue nuclear weapons but the cost for that concession (a promise the US already had under Obama’s Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action) are astronomical.
Three things jumped out at me:
“The United States of America undertakes that immediately upon the signing of this MoU, and until the termination of sanctions, the U.S. Department of Treasury will issue waivers for the export of Iranian crude oil, petroleum products and derivatives, and all associated services including banking transactions, insurances, transportation, etc.”
“The United States of America undertakes to terminate all types of sanctions against the Islamic Republic of Iran, including the United Nations Security Council resolutions, IAEA Board of Governors resolutions, and all unilateral U.S. sanctions, primary and secondary, in an agreed upon schedule as part of the final deal.”
“The United States of America undertakes, with regional partners, to develop a definitive mutually agreed plan with at least USD 300 Billion, for the reconstruction and economic development of the Islamic Republic of Iran.”
The MoU, if implemented as read, will give Iran hundreds of billions of dollars and several pathways to making a lot more money. Trump gave everything away and got little in return.
According to the MoU, the two sides have 60 days to work out the specifics. If it all falls through, Trump said he’ll just blame the vice president. Speaking at the G7, Trump put it all on Vance. “If it works out I’m going to take the credit. If it doesn’t work out I’m blaming JD. You better be careful, JD. He’s going to turn his plane around and get the hell out of here,” he said.
He also said it was only fair that Iran keep its ballistic missiles, a heavy point of contention with Iran hawks and Israel. “If other countries have them, it’s a little bit unfair for them not to have some. A ballistic missile is not the same thing as what we’re talking about, when we talk nuclear. But if Saudi Arabia and Qatar, and they all have some — in relative proportion, I think it’s OK,” he said.
6/18/26
In the 1960s America developed nuclear-powered cruise missiles as part of Project Pluto. It abandoned the idea after tests showed that a nuclear-powered ramjet spewed a shocking amount of radiation in its wake. Russia decided to revive the idea. Say hello to what NATO calls “Skyfall,” Russia’s answer to Project Pluto.
Putin announced the missile during a presentation of six new Russia weapons in 2018 in which he demonstrated their capability with a CGI video of nukes hitting Mar-a-Lago. Russia calls the missile the Burevestnik and NPR published a detailed breakdown of its inner-workings on Thursday.
Hegseth’s decision to give American military recruits the freedom to not take the flu vaccine has been a disaster. A major flu outbreak has sickened 160 troops at Lackland Air Force Base in Texas. The outbreak came less than two months after Hegseth’s announcement.
At the White House, JD Vance took questions from the press about the Strait of Hormuz and Iran. He pushed back on critical coverage of the MoU. “You will hear things about $300 billion or $24 billion or this or that number of money — or amount of money. And the simple fact is that the only way the Iranians get any of those resources — not a single penny, by the way, from the United States of America under any circumstances — but the only way that they would ever get any benefit of the bargain is if they comply fully and change their behavior,” Vance said.
On ballistic missiles, Vance said that a lot of Iran’s stockpile had already been destroyed. “It’s not just the bullets, but it’s the actual gun. And that’s what we were extremely effective at destroying during the last three months of the campaign,” Vance said. “All the President said yesterday is that [...] countries don’t give up the right of self-defense. Israel doesn’t give up the right of self-defense if Hezbollah fires rockets or drones at Israel. The Iranians don’t give up the right of self-defense in their country.”
6/19/26
Bill Pulte became acting Director of National Intelligence after a weeks-long fight between Trump and Congressional Republicans. This wasn’t supposed to happen. Last week the US House voted down the renewal of portions of FISA to stop Pulte from getting nominated and Trump backed down and put forward Jay Clayton as a replacement. But Congress had to confirm Clayton before Pulte automatically became acting DNI on Friday and that confirmation didn’t happen.
Why? It appears that Trump blew up the Clayton nomination as part of a bid to have his will be done by Congress. “To add a slight bit of intrigue but, for the Good of the Nation, and the People of our Country, I will not approve FISA without THE SAVE AMERICA ACT going along with it. Not complicated, actually, the Republicans fell into a trap. Regarding the approval of our Great Patriot, Jay Clayton, we are cancelling the Senate Hearing RE: DNI today, and will not be going forward until Jamie McDonald is approved to be U.S. Attorney. In the meantime, Bill Pulte will remain as the Acting Director of National Intelligence,” he said in a post on Truth Social.
The blue paint of the Reflecting Pool began to peel and rise to the surface. Police arrested former US Olympian David Hearn for vandalism after he was seen touching the pool.
6/20/26
Over the weekend, Reflecting Pool mania fully seized the attention of the American public and its president. On Saturday, the National Guard arrived to protect the pool and Trump announced it would need to be drained to repair damage to the lining.
6/21/26
Trump decided that vandals were responsible for the sorry state of the Reflecting Pool. “Work will begin immediately on fixing the seriously vandalized Reflecting Pool. I just inspected it, and could only say to myself, and those gathered around me, WOW, who would do such a thing? SICK, DERANGED PEOPLE! We will fix it?” He said in a post on Truth Social.
Talks to hammer out the specifics of the Iran deal began in Switzerland.
Matthew, the farce at the Reflecting Pool is even worse. Or better. It all depends on how you look at it.
Early on May 7th, Trump's armoured cavalcade of ten vehicles, plus a police SUV and led, hilariously, by a tiny Park Service golf buggy, drove onto the drained Reflecting Pool whilst it was being painted and sealed. There are lots of videos. Snopes has confirmed they are not fakes.
"NBC showed footage of the cars crossing a seemingly wet patch of paint, leaving tire marks behind. Forbes showed the same clip."
(https://archive.ph/vVfUe)
Hmm.... I suspect it will eventually be revealed that this monstrously heavy cavalcade was responsible for the damage done to the new lining.